-Parana soybean conditions improving for later planted crops
-Brazil soybean exports for Jan record high for month – corn exports strong
-Trade ideas for not-to-be-released Cattle on Feed report
-Chinese corn futures strong on ideas of increased reserve buying
-Russian wheat export estimate raised
In yesterday morning’s comments, we mentioned Parana’s ag agency (Deral) lowered their estimate of the state’s soybean crop to 16.8 MMT from 19.1 MMT estimated in December and is down from last year’s 19.2 MMT. In additional details from Deral’s update, they reflected a notable improvement in the soybean crop has been seen of late following the improved rains, with 70% of the crop now rated good vs 58% just two weeks ago. It is worth noting that most of the concerns for Brazil’s soybean crop, in the areas that have had below average rainfall, involve the earliest planted soybeans, while the majority of the country’s crop that was planted at more typical times is believed to be in mostly good condition. The update by Deral would tend to support that view. Parana’s soybean crop is 15% harvested. Rio Grande do Sul’s state ag agency is expected to slightly lower their estimate of their soybean crop to around 18.4 MMT from 18.7 MMT previously, due to too wet conditions, but would still be up moderately from last year’s 17.2 MMT.
 A survey conducted by Farm Futures magazine, which included 626 farmers, reflected average expectations for 2019 corn planted area of 90.3 million acres (89.1 million 2018), soybeans 84.6 million (89.1 million 2018) and 31.6 million winter wheat (32.5 million 2018). HRW area was estimated at 22.8 million acres (22.9 million last year), SRW 5.6 million (6.1 million last year) and white winter 3.2 million (3.5 million last year). Other spring wheat area was estimated at 12.5 million acres vs 13.2 million last year (an interesting divergence from Informa’s 13.8 million and most ideas for an increase), durum at 2.5 million vs 2.1 million last year and cotton 14.6 million vs 14.0 million last year. Sorghum area was estimated at 5.1 million vs 5.8 million last year.
 Loading data so far, combined with the line-up for the next week, indicates Brazil is expected to export roughly 3.55 MMT of corn in January, which would be a modest increase from last January’s 3.021 MMT and would be the third highest on record for the month (4.459 MMT in 2016, 3.369 MMT 2013). December exports of 4.014 MMT were a 14-month high. January soybean exports are estimated to be around 2.5 MMT, continuing the seasonal decline and down from 4.2 MMT in Dec, but would be record high for the month and solidly above last year’s 1.6 MMT.
 In another USDA report that won’t be released due to the government shutdown, the Cattle on Feed report was supposed to be out this afternoon. To give an idea of what the market was anticipating, the average estimate of Jan 1 On Feed was 102.2% of last year and compares to Dec 1 of 101.9%. December placements were estimated at 101.5 vs 95.1 in Nov, while Dec marketings were estimated at 100.0 vs 101.4 in Nov.
 The Indonesian Flour Mills Association said they expect flour mills in the country to increase wheat imports in 2019 by around 5-6% from 2018’s 8.35 MMT, putting imports by mills at around 8.8 MMT.
 Chinese corn futures saw the largest single-day price rise in more than a year overnight following a statement on the website of the country’s strategic reserve administration for state firms to increase corn purchases from farmers as a larger than usual portion of last year’s crop remains unsold across key growing provinces in the northeast. In an effort to support farmers and get corn stocks into better storage facilities to prevent spoilage, stronger buying is being urged. Some feel this may also be a signal the start of annual auctions of state corn reserves in early summer may be delayed in order to allow a longer selling period by farmers.
ï‚· SovEcon raised their estimate of 2018/19 Russian wheat exports to 35.6 MMT from 35.1 MMT previously, with total grain (wheat, corn, barley) exports seen at 42.5 MMT.
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