-Parana solidly lowers soybean crop estimate
-Russia to require weekly grain export data reporting
-Palm oil prices seen modestly higher in 2019
-Brazilian 6-10 day rain forecast somewhat limited
 Parana’s ag agency lowered their estimate of the state’s soybean crop to 16.8 MMT from 19.1 MMT estimated in December and compares to last year’s 19.2 MMT. CONAB’s last estimate of the Brazilian crop included an estimate of 19.2 MMT for Parana.
 Russia’s Ag Ministry will begin requiring export ports to supply weekly grain shipment data, along with future weekly export plans, in what they say is to help secure balanced usage of grain export infrastructure capacity, while some others in the industry see it more as initial steps being taken to eventually increase controls of exports moving forward. The ministry sees the country’s annual export port capacity at around 50 MMT, while total grain exports this year are expected to be 42 MMT.
 A Reuters poll of various palm oil traders/analysts/market participants revealed average expectations for 2019 Indonesian palm oil production to marginally rise to 42.5 MMT (36.5-46.6 MMT range of ideas) from 42 MMT in 2018, while 2019 Malaysian palm oil production was estimated at 20.2 MMT (19.4-22.3 MMT range), up only slightly from 2018’s 19.5 MMT. The average expected price of benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures was put at 2,375 ringgit/tonne ($574 at current exchange rate), up only around 3% from 2018’s 2.308 ringgit/tonne average. The range of ideas was 2,075-2,560 ringgit/tonne ($502-$619).
ï‚· The price gap between Russian and U.S. wheat export values continues to narrow, with 11.5% protein Russian wheat currently priced only around $15/tonne below US SRW values at the Gulf vs more than a $50/tonne discount in early August. Increasing U.S. competitiveness and slowing Russian exports could/should eventually benefit the U.S. export program, but the notable freight advantage must always be kept in mind, which is around $8-10/tonne less from Russian into Egypt than U.S., for example.
 U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the Chinese delegation set to come to Washington next Tuesday-Wednesday consists of around 30 people and “a lot of anticipatory work†has been done, but that “we’re miles and miles from getting a resolution.†Nonetheless, the potential for concessionary measures such as increased ag purchases/tariff revisions, etc., as part of the process and before actual agreements are signed is clearly viewed as being in play.
ï‚· IGC solidly raised their estimate of 2018/19 global wheat production to 737 MMT from 729 MMT previously (USDA at 733 MMT), with a rebound in 2019/20 to around 751 MMT preliminarily expected.
 IEG Vantage, previously Informa, lowered their estimate of this year’s expected U.S. corn planted area to 91.5 million acres from 91.9 million previously estimated (92.7 million estimated in October), but would still be up solidly from this year’s 89.140 million. Their soybean area estimate moved up to 86.2 million acres from 85.1 million previously (83.0 million estimated in October), but would still be down solidly from this year’s 89.145 million. Their winter wheat area estimate is unchanged from previous ideas at 31.513 million (22.2 million HRW, 5.9 mil SRW, 3.5 mil winter white) and is down from last year’s 32.5 million (22.9 HRW, 6.1 SRW, 3.5 white). They see other spring wheat area at 13.78 million acres and durum at 1.87, which compare to 13.2 million and 2.07 million last year, respectively. Cotton planted area was estimated at 14.637 million acres vs 14.042 million last year.
 APK-Inform said Ukraine’s current snow cover is sufficient to protect winter crops from recent severe cold and overall conditions remain favorable.
Capitol Commodity Services/R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O’Brien and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O’Brien’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O’Brien believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.
