-Expected large EU wheat crop puts negative view on new crop market outlook
-South Korean corn buying continues
-Another Brazilian crop estimate moves lower
-Good Brazilian rains expected this week – actual amounts will be important
-Malaysian/Indonesian palm oil production expected to rise further in 2019
 The USDA is re-opening 983 of the 2,124 Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices for three days (today, Fri, Tue) to process farm loans and tax documents, with workers going without pay, in order to help with the crush of ag lending that typically gets set up this time of the year. Another interesting side issue to the government shutdown is the potential threat it poses on the USDA annual Ag Outlook conference slated for February 21-22. At that annual conference, USDA typically provides their first overall view of the new crop outlook, including acreage and balance sheet ideas. Without the January set of reports and their inability to do pre-conference analysis, the timing of an end to the partial government shutdown will be critical in the USDA’s ability to hold the Ag Outlook conference as usual.
ï‚· EPA acting Administrator Wheeler said the partial government shutdown is delaying the process of getting the rule issued to allow year-long E15 ethanol blend sales. While their initial goal was to have the rule issued in February, he said it could still be in place for the 2019 summer driving season as long as the work is complete in time to allow for the standard public comment period.
ï‚· Celeres lowered their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop by nearly 5 MMT to 117.2 MMT as the wave of crop reductions continues. They see the 1st corn crop at 28 MMT, down from previous expectations of 29 MMT. CONAB last estimated the crops at 118.8 MMT and 27.5 MMT, respectively. Most private estimates of the soybean crop have been settling into a 115-118 MMT range of late.
ï‚· South Korean feedmills remain active, buying another 129k tonnes of optional-origin corn for May arrival and priced from $206.35- $208.20/tonne c&f.
 Strategie Grains marginally lowered their estimates of 2019/20 EU wheat and corn production with the soft wheat crop now seen at 146.4 MMT vs 147.0 MMT previously, but still up solidly from last year’s 127.1 MMT and the corn crop at 62.4 MMT vs 62.9 MMT previously, but also up from last year’s 60.0 MMT. The large expected increase in soft wheat production of around 19 MMT is expected to significantly outpace their view of the potential rise in exports in 2019/20 to at least 24.5 MMT from this year’s 18.5 MMT, resulting in an overall negative fundamental outlook in place for the coming year, they said.
ï‚· The Russian Ag Ministry, once again, said currently there are no restrictions on grain exports being discussed and reiterated their expectation for total grain exports this year of 42 MMT.
ï‚· A Reuters poll showed average analyst expectations of the Chinese economy to slow to a 6.3% growth rate in 2019 from 6.6% in 2018. Concerns of a slowing Chinese economy continue to heat up given the slowing that was seen throughout 2018 from the 6.8% expansion seen in the 1st quarter to 6.4% by the 4th quarter. Inflation is seen remaining low at around 2.3%.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board said they see the country’s 2019 palm oil production to rise to 20.3 MMT from 2018’s 19.5 MMT, allowing for exports to rise to 17.2 MMT from 16.5 MMT in 16.5 MMT. Additionally, they expect the average price of crude palm oil to move above 2,500 ringgit/tonne ($609). For reference, current benchmark April palm oil futures closed overnight at 2,198 ringgit/tonne ($535).
 Indonesia’s palm oil industry association, GAPKI, sees the country’s palm oil production rising to around 52.4 MMT in 2019 from 47.6 MMT in 2018.
 Malaysia said they have a goal of raising the country’s biodiesel blend rate from the current 10% to 20% by 2020.
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