-Soybean sales extremely strong again – above expectations
-Corn sales at bottom of expectations
-Wheat sales solid – towards upper end of expectations
-SBM/SBO sales disappointing
Soybeans saw another exceptionally strong week of sales at 2.631 MMT (96.7 million bushels), solidly above market expectations of 1.5-2.2 MMT and up from the previous week’s 90.9 million bushels. Incredibly, each of the first six weeks’ soybean sales of the 2020/21 marketing year have been above 90 million bushels (2.45 MMT). This week’s activity included 1.2 MMT in sales to China, bringing their official purchases to far to 23.7 MMT vs 5.6 MMT on the books at this time last year. There were also sales of at least 687k tonnes to unknown for the week, as well. Total commitments now stand at 1.589 billion bushels vs 656 million at this time last year, leaving sales needing to average roughly 14.0 million bushels/week from this point forward vs last year’s 23.7 million/week. Based on official sales on the books to China of 23.7 MMT and the assumption that around 5 MMT of sales to unknown are Chinese, as well, we estimate China would need to buy another 8-9 MMT of soybeans in order to match their record annual imports from the U.S. of 36.1 MMT. If that ends up being the case, sales over the remainder of the marketing year to all non-Chinese destinations would need to average roughly 7.5 million bushels/week through next August in order to reach the USDA’s current 2.200 billion bushel export projection.
U.S. corn export sales last week were disappointing at 655k tonnes (25.8 million bushels), coming in at the bottom of market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT, declining notably from the previous week’s 48.3 million bushels and were easily the lowest of the 2020/21 marketing year so far. Until today’s report, marketing year low sales were last week’s 48.3 million, while the previous four weeks’ sales ranged from 63.4-84.2 million bushels. The largest sales for the week went to Mexico with 205k tonnes, with new sales to China of 79k tonnes. China now has 10.1 MMT of U.S. corn on the books. Total commitments of 1.043 billion bushels are more than double last year’s at this time of 408 million, leaving sales needing to average roughly 27 million bushels/week for the rest of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 29.3 million/week average from this point forward. We are anticipating additional notable purchases by China to materialize at some point – the question is when.
U.S. wheat sales last week of 528k tonnes (19.4 mil bu) were near the top end of market expectations of 200-60k tonnes, were nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 19.5 million and were well above last year’s same-week sales of 14.6 mil bu. Total commitments of 553 million bushels are now up nearly 9% from last year’s 508 million, continuing to run solidly above the USDA’s 975 million bushel annual projection reflected an estimated 1% increase in exports from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s projection, we estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 13.3 million bushels/week for the rest of 2020/21 vs last year’s 14.6 million/week average from this point forward.
Soybean product sales were disappointing this week with soybean meal’s 152k tonnes near the bottom of expectations of 100-350k and soybean oil’s mere 1.4k tonnes vs expectations of 0-30k. SBM total commitments of 3.619 MMT are nearly identical to last year’s 3.616 MMT with the 2020/21 marketing year just getting underway, as sales will need to average roughly 161k tonnes/week based on the USDA’s export projection, very similar to last year’s 167k/week. Soybean oil total commitments of 178k tonnes compare to last year’s 200k at this time, with sales needing to average roughly 19k tonnes/week throughout 2020/21 vs last year’s 21.8k/week average to reach the USDA’s annual export projection.